How Probable are the Following Projections?

* Global economic output will, at some point, return to and then exceed its 2007 value.
* Technology and human ingenuity can and will solve the problems of
     (1) insufficient liquid petroleum to meet global demand for transportation fuels;
     (2) acidification of the oceans and the ongoing collapse of the oceanic food web;
     (3) desertification, deforestation, and ecosystem collapse;
     (4) supplying 7 billion humans with sufficient food and fresh water.
* You will comfortably retire on your pension, investments, or Social Security.
* Ecological principles such as carrying capacity and overshoot don't apply to humans.

What if there was a 10% chance of any of these NOT happening? Would you be worried? Would you try to figure out what it would mean for you, your family, and your community? After all, we take out life, auto, and health insurance for far lower probabilities.

What if the chance that none of the above will happen is 50%? Or 90? Or 100%?

The future is unknown, of course, but a cascading synergy of observations indicate that catastrophic events have a much higher probability than the vast majority of Earth's human inhabitants recognize.

Evolutionary psychologists tell us that optimism has its uses. But optimism also causes us to downplay, ignore, or simply not see reality, and to overestimate our ability to "solve" whatever "problems" arise.

If you are not a blind optimist, or an ostrich, or a willing mushroom (kept in the dark and fed shit all day), this site should interest you.